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Another Inflation Beat

SGD

Singapore inflation data for June surprised once again on the upside. The headline YoY printed at 6.7%, versus 6.2% expected. MoM it was +1.0% versus 0.5% expected. Core inflation was also stronger than expected, +4.4% YoY, versus 4.1% expected.

  • Underlying momentum in inflation still looks strong. 7 out of 10 of the sub-categories recorded faster YoY gains in June compared to May, although clearly transport was a standout at +18.8% in YoY terms.
  • Core inflation rose 0.7% in the month, with the YoY pace now strongest since late 2008.
  • This data will reaffirm calls that further MAS tightening is likely at the October policy meeting.
  • USD/SGD initially dipped following the CPI print, but we are back close too unchanged at 1.3880 on the day, versus the post CPI low under 1.3870. This rebound has coincided with the USD kicking higher though, so that’s likely a factor.
  • On a NEER basis, we have still seen SGD FX outperformance. The NEER continues to track inflation pressures higher. We are -0.95% away from the top end of the band, according to Goldman Sachs estimates.
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