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USD/KRW Eyeing Test Sub 1305

KRW

1 month USD/KRW dipped towards 1305 late in NY, from earlier highs close to 1316, as the USD suffered broad based losses. A break below 1305 would pave the way for a run towards 1300. Resistance around 1315 is likely to persist in the near term. Note onshore spot closed at 1313.25 yesterday, so expect some catch up on the downside in early trade today.

  • The lead for Korean equities is positive, given the 4.75% rise in SOX overnight, while the MSCI IT index gain +4%, as tech outperformed broad based equity gains. Yesterday, the Kospi managed a small gain, while the Kosdaq rose 0.73%. Offshore investors sold $55.1mn of local shares. Week to date net outflows remain modest though.
  • Note, Samsung will hold a call at 10am local time after Q2 earnings are released.
  • Earlier, South Korean manufacturing and non-manufacturing sentiment fell further. Manufacturing to 78 from 83, while non-manufacturing to 80 from 81. This is line with yesterday's fall in consumer sentiment, see the chart below. Both indicators continue to suggest easing economic momentum.
  • The South Korean Finance Minister stated that the authorities will take stabilization steps if markets show excessive one-sided moves. The authorities will also take steps to further develop FX markets in Q3. Presumably this refers to expanded trading hours onshore, as Korea seeks to join global bond market indices.

Fig 1: South Korea Business and Consumer Sentiment - Losing Ground

Source: MNI/Market News/Bloomberg

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