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USD/KRW Eyeing Test Of 50-Day MA

KRW

1 month USD/KRW fell close to -0.80% over the past 24 hours, with the won outperforming the rest of the Asia FX complex. Note the next best performing currency was SGD, which has gained 0.7% over this period. 1 month USD/KRW ended the NY session just under 1297. Note onshore spot closed yesterday at 1310.45, so we will see catch up in early trade today when onshore markets open.

  • The 50-day MA comes in at 1296.20 today for the 1 month NDF. We spent some time below this level in late May/early June but ultimately it proved to be a false break on the downside, see the chart below.
  • The won was buoyed by the sharp rise in equities, post the softer than expected US CPI release, with tech outperforming. The SOX rebounded 4.25%, nearly unwinding all of the previous session's loss. The MSCI IT index gain 3.0%, again outperforming main US equity index gains.
  • To recap, the Kospi fell 0.9% yesterday, while offshore investors sold $140.4mn of local shares. These trends should be better today, although a cloud still hangs over the chip sector outlook, given disappointing company updates this week.
  • Locally, data on tap includes the first 10 days export data for August. Exports were up 9.4% YoY in June. Later on, money supply figures are due for June.

Fig 1: USD/KRW To Test 50-Day MA On The Downside?

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1 month USD/KRW fell close to -0.80% over the past 24 hours, with the won outperforming the rest of the Asia FX complex. Note the next best performing currency was SGD, which has gained 0.7% over this period. 1 month USD/KRW ended the NY session just under 1297. Note onshore spot closed yesterday at 1310.45, so we will see catch up in early trade today when onshore markets open.

  • The 50-day MA comes in at 1296.20 today for the 1 month NDF. We spent some time below this level in late May/early June but ultimately it proved to be a false break on the downside, see the chart below.
  • The won was buoyed by the sharp rise in equities, post the softer than expected US CPI release, with tech outperforming. The SOX rebounded 4.25%, nearly unwinding all of the previous session's loss. The MSCI IT index gain 3.0%, again outperforming main US equity index gains.
  • To recap, the Kospi fell 0.9% yesterday, while offshore investors sold $140.4mn of local shares. These trends should be better today, although a cloud still hangs over the chip sector outlook, given disappointing company updates this week.
  • Locally, data on tap includes the first 10 days export data for August. Exports were up 9.4% YoY in June. Later on, money supply figures are due for June.

Fig 1: USD/KRW To Test 50-Day MA On The Downside?

Keep reading...Show less