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Little Shift in Positioning Ahead of April FOMC

CROSS ASSET
  • Headed into the Fed, markets remain primarily long of Treasuries, with non-commercial traders net long of 15k contracts - inline with the 2021 average.
  • Meanwhile, leveraged funds continue to build the net position in 10y notes, with last week's CFTC CoT release putting the net position close to early March's +364k net position - which was the highest since 2014.
  • In FX space, USD positioning remains net long - but only just. The MNI FX Positioning Indicator sits close to the best levels of 2021 and just above 0, but there's been little shift in positioning headed into today's decision.
  • Directional parameters for the USD Index hold from the tail-end of last week, with 90.682 as first support, while the 91.590 20-day EMA provides the next key level of resistance.

Figure 1: USD Index, MNI USD Positioning Indicator


Source: MNI/Bloomberg

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com

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