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LNG: Bullish Sentiment Driving Global LNG with 'Fragile' Winter Ahead

LNG

The global LNG market remains 'fragile' ahead of winter amid bullish LNG signals and vulnerability to supply shocks despite underlying bearish fundamentals, according to S&P Global.

  • Sentiment is driving price moves more than fundamentals with a recent rise in hedge fund net-long position in the European natural gas and LNG markets.
  • "Asian buyers didn't even start to fill up their inventories - temperatures are still high, Egypt took away significant chunk of supply from Europe, South America may take some extra cargos in Q4, Q1 as well," Alija Bajramovic said.
  • The market remains wary of any serious cold spells despite near full gas storage, the return of French nuclear, low demand for gas in power generation and muted industrial demand.
  • Continued delays to the start of new liquefaction capacity have added to the bullish outlook for H1 2025 along with forecasted growth in global LNG demand.
  • Some buyers may be seeking advanced LNG cargo deliveries into Winter 24/25 and throughout 2025 for term contracts with spot prices likely high before more new supplies become available into 2026.
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