LNG: North Asia LNG Winter Demand Up 4.3% y/y Led by South Korea: BNEF

North Asian LNG demand will reach 113.9m tons over winter 2024-25, up 4.7m tons or 4.3% year-on-year led by South Korea, BNEF said.

• Heating demand in residential and commercial sectors is a key driver with an additional 4.8m tons of city gas demand assuming 10-year average weather compared to the mild winter last year.
• The estimated spot and contracted LNG price range for 2024-25 winter is $9-$15/mmbtu based on futures curves on Aug 27.
• South Korea will add 2.5m tons winter-on-winter due to higher gas power and city gas demand.
• A soft economy, high prices, strong domestic output and Russian pipeline imports will limit Mainland China LNG demand growth. Mainland China is projected to lead gas power growth due to rapid capacity expansion.
• Lower coal generation will boost gas-fired output in South Korea and Taiwan, but rising coal and nuclear generation will limit demand in Japan. Japan is the only market that expects a year on year decline in LNG imports.
• Winter risks include weather, mainland China pipeline deliveries, nuclear and coal availability in Japan and South Korea and import capacity constraints in Taiwan.
• Inventories in Japan and South Korea will end winter in the four-year range.

Source: BNEF