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LNG: TTF Dec Premium Too Weak For European LNG to Float

LNG
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Last October, ICIS LNG analysts counted up to 16 floating vessels off the coast of Europe.

  • By 31 December 2023, European underground storage facilities were still 85% full, down from 94% on 1 October – similar to current levels.
  • In 2024, the market feels there could be a lot fewer, if any vessels waiting in the same way ICIS said.
  • The ICIS TTF December ’24 premium to October ’24 has been too weak, in September at least, to keep cargoes waiting before delivery.
  • It has averaged €2.41/MWh ($0.79/mmBtu) throughout 1-25 September while the same spread was €13.53/MWh ($4.42/mmBtu) in the same timeframe last year.
  • ICIS global LNG balance modelling (see attachment) suggests demand could outpace supply in coming months, potentially leaving few spot cargoes available to effectuate an arbitrage.

Source: ICIS

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Last October, ICIS LNG analysts counted up to 16 floating vessels off the coast of Europe.

  • By 31 December 2023, European underground storage facilities were still 85% full, down from 94% on 1 October – similar to current levels.
  • In 2024, the market feels there could be a lot fewer, if any vessels waiting in the same way ICIS said.
  • The ICIS TTF December ’24 premium to October ’24 has been too weak, in September at least, to keep cargoes waiting before delivery.
  • It has averaged €2.41/MWh ($0.79/mmBtu) throughout 1-25 September while the same spread was €13.53/MWh ($4.42/mmBtu) in the same timeframe last year.
  • ICIS global LNG balance modelling (see attachment) suggests demand could outpace supply in coming months, potentially leaving few spot cargoes available to effectuate an arbitrage.

Source: ICIS