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LNG: Upcoming Winter Gas Needs In Focus

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European and Asian natural gas prices rose on Tuesday as the market focused on the upcoming winter despite elevated storage levels and also took advantage of Monday’s fall in prices. European LNG rose 4.4% to EUR 35.58 but it is not back to Friday’s close and is still down over 10% in September to date. Concerns about disruptions to Russian gas flows through Ukraine during winter persist. 

  • UBS estimates that European gas prices could rise to around EUR 50 if there is a cold winter and unplanned disruptions to supplies, according to Bloomberg. Fighting in Kursk around a gas transit point and the year-end expiry of the agreement to allow Russian gas to flow through Ukraine are key risks to European supply, as well as unplanned Norwegian outages.
  • US natural gas fell 2.6% to $2.31 but is still 8.7% higher in September. Prices rose to a high of $2.44 due to a fire on a pipeline in Texas and then fell on some profit taking. The eastern US is now forecast to have cooler weather over the coming 2 weeks.
  • North Asian prices rose 2.9% but are still down 5.2% this month. But price rises may ease as China’s storage facilities fill up and Malaysia’s LNG exports rebound after an outage. Japanese cooling demand has increased again though.
  • Chevron announced that it will shut down between a half and one train at its Australian Gorgon LNG facility in June 2025.
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European and Asian natural gas prices rose on Tuesday as the market focused on the upcoming winter despite elevated storage levels and also took advantage of Monday’s fall in prices. European LNG rose 4.4% to EUR 35.58 but it is not back to Friday’s close and is still down over 10% in September to date. Concerns about disruptions to Russian gas flows through Ukraine during winter persist. 

  • UBS estimates that European gas prices could rise to around EUR 50 if there is a cold winter and unplanned disruptions to supplies, according to Bloomberg. Fighting in Kursk around a gas transit point and the year-end expiry of the agreement to allow Russian gas to flow through Ukraine are key risks to European supply, as well as unplanned Norwegian outages.
  • US natural gas fell 2.6% to $2.31 but is still 8.7% higher in September. Prices rose to a high of $2.44 due to a fire on a pipeline in Texas and then fell on some profit taking. The eastern US is now forecast to have cooler weather over the coming 2 weeks.
  • North Asian prices rose 2.9% but are still down 5.2% this month. But price rises may ease as China’s storage facilities fill up and Malaysia’s LNG exports rebound after an outage. Japanese cooling demand has increased again though.
  • Chevron announced that it will shut down between a half and one train at its Australian Gorgon LNG facility in June 2025.