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Local Analysts Comment On June Retail Sales Outturn

POLAND

Poland's retail sales rose by 2.1% Y/Y in June, missing the +2.6% BBG consensus forecast. Real retail sales contracted by 4.7% Y/Y versus -5.0% expected. Snap reactions of local analysts summarised below:

  • ING expect a recovery in consumption in 2H2023 after real wages returned to growth. They note that the implied deflator of sales fell to +7.1% Y/Y from +9.2% in May.
  • mBank comment that the data came "without surprises" and was close to the consensus call.
  • Pekao write that Q2 was worse than Q1 in terms of private consumption and they expect that it contracted by -2.8% Y/Y.
  • PKO note that the decline in retail sales is slowing for the second consecutive month as the financial situation of households begins to improve. Real sales may soon start increasing as disinflation continues, causing an acceleration in real wage growth.
  • The Polish Economic Institute expect an improvement in retail sales in 3Q2023 after wage growth outpaced inflation in June.
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