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Lockdown Sways RBNZ Toward Staying Put

NZD

The kiwi took a hit after the RBNZ maintained the OCR at 0.25%, with the opening lines of the statement noting that the "decision was made in the context of the Government's imposition of Level 4 COVID restrictions on activity across New Zealand," even as the Committee's "least regrets policy stance is to further reduce the level of monetary stimulus". That being said, the NZD has already unwound most of its post-announcement losses, with the RBNZ forecasting policy tightening from 4Q2021.

  • NZD/USD trades unch. at $0.6919, off the post-RBNZ session/YtD low of $0.6870. Bears look for a deeper sell-off past Nov 13, 2020 low/round figure of $0.6811/00.
  • NZD/USD overnight implied volatility pulled back from highs and now sits at 16.95%.
  • AUD/NZD trades +6 pips at NZ$1.0491, familiar technical levels remain in play.
  • NZD/JPY last seen -5 pips at Y75.78 after printing a session of Y75.23. Bears now set their sights on Jan 28 low of Y74.13, followed by Jan 18 low of Y73.65.
  • RBNZ Governor Orr will hold a press conference at the top of the hour.
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