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Long End Underperforming Ahead Of FOMC Minutes And 20Y Supply

US TSYS

Treasuries have been trading without much direction early Wednesday, as we await 20Y supply and the FOMC minutes release later for Fed guidance on asset taper / rate hikes.

  • After touching session lows in late Asia-Pac hours, Tsys in sympathy with global core bonds gained in London trading following softer-than-survey UK CPI, combined with equities paring an early rise.
  • Very much within narrow ranges though: Sep 10-Yr futures (TY) down 1/32 at 134-07.5 (L: 134-03.5 / H: 134-10). And volume nothing special (~250k TYU1 traded).
  • Cash curve trading mixed, with longer-end underperformance ahead of supply: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.4bps at 0.2094%, 5-Yr is down 0.5bps at 0.762%, 10-Yr is up 0.2bps at 1.2634%, and 30-Yr is up 0.6bps at 1.925%.
  • The July FOMC meeting minutes are released at 1400ET; before that, at 1200ET, St Louis Fed Pres Bullard discusses the US outlook at an online event.
  • A lighter day on the data front vs Tuesday: MBA Mortgage Apps at 0700ET, with building permits and housing starts at 0830ET.
  • Supply highlight is $27B of 20Y Bond at 1300ET; also $30B 119-Day bill sale at 1130ET. NY Fed buys ~$8.425B of 2.25-4.5Y Tsys.

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