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Long USD Trade Remains Moderately Crowded Despite Dollar Trading At 20Y High

FOREX
  • Net long specs on the US Dollar continued to rise in the week ended July 5, increasing by 45K to a total of 163.4K contracts.
  • Momentum on the dollar has been mainly driven by the renewed geopolitical tensions, the ‘hawkish’ Fed tone and surging stagflation risks.
  • Interestingly, long USD trade remains moderately crowded despite the greenback trading at a 20-year high.
    • Long specs in the dollar were significantly bigger at the end of 2021 when the USD index was trading at 97.
  • Important data to watch this week will be US CPI inflation, expected to accelerate to 8.8% YoY in June.
  • Another strong beat will push the Fed to proceed with another 75bps hike to counter the elevated inflationary pressures.
  • DXY broke above the 107 level on Friday; next key level to watch on the topside stands at 109.24.
    • A break above that level would bring us to June 2002 highs.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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