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Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Drift Lower

US
  • The 5Y breakeven has unwound yesterday’s drop as it rises 3bps on the day to 2.91%, although is still down 50bps in May month and off a peak of 3.76% from Mar 24.
  • The longer-term 5Y5Y forward breakeven meanwhile continues to trend lower at 2.19%, down 2bps from yesterday’s close albeit within yesterday’s range as the pace slows from last week.
  • It’s nearly closed the gap to pre-Ukraine war levels and coincidentally is back where it averaged through 2021, having moderated at a faster pace than the more volatile 5Y5Y inflation swap.

5Y breakeven (pink), 5Y5Y breakeven (green) and 5Y5Y inflation swap (yellow)Source: Bloomberg

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