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Looking ahead to labour market data tomorrow

GILTS
  • 10-year gilt yields have caught up with the moves seen in 10-year Bunds in early trading, with yields up 2.6bp at the time of writing. However, the gilt curve has seen more of a parallel shift, rather than the bear steepening seen in the German curve
  • In terms of domestic focus on the UK, we have PM Sunak meeting Ukrainian President Zelensky with early headlines suggesting the UK will increase its military aid spending for Ukraine.
  • The big event for UK markets this week, however, will be the release of labour market data tomorrow morning. Average earnings are expected to increase a little further on an ex bonus basis to 6.8%Y/Y (from 6.6% in the 3-months to February). We will have another print (on 13 June) ahead of the next MPC meeting - but nonetheless tomorrow's data will be important.
  • In terms of what's priced in for the UK, there is around 20.5bp for the June meeting with a peak of 43bp priced by November. A first full cut isn't priced until March 2024, however.
  • 2y yields up 2.6bp today at 3.814%, 5y yields up 2.7bp at 3.622%, 10y yields up 2.6bp at 3.801% and 30y yields up 2.6bp at 4.240%.
  • 2s10s unch today at -0.13.bp and 10s30s down -0.1bp at 43.8bp.
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