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Looking at the drivers of the change in UK CPI

UK DATA
  • Looking at the contributions to the change it looks as though the surprise to headline CPI was driven by food prices falling faster than expected. (FAT contributed -0.25ppt to the change versus January).
  • Catering was the largest downside contributor to services CPI (-0.16ppt) while there was also a contribution of -0.07ppt from misc goods and services.
  • Second hand cars contributed -0.04ppt.
  • Accommodation prices we had cited as an upside risk here and they contributed +0.03ppt (last month they were -0.06ppt).
  • Air fares were broadly in line with exp and only contributed a +0.02ppt and package holidays -0.01ppt.
  • Clothing did not contribute as negatively as some had expected, only contributing -0.02ppt to headline CPI.
  • We note that although services CPI surprised 0.1ppt to the upside on the Bloomberg survey, 7/15 analyst previews that we had read looked for 6.1%Y/Y or higher today anyway. And that is still in line with the BOE's February MPR forecast.
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