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A lack of macro headline flow and a Japanese holiday limited USD/JPY to a narrow 21-pip range overnight, with the rate printing ~10 pips higher on the day at Y110.25 into European hours.
- We should also highlight that the closure of cash Tsys until the London open (owing to the aforementioned Tokyo holiday) has removed the traditional driver of the cross.
- Thursday saw the cross stick within a sub 40-pip range, with the richening in Tsys witnessed during the NY session anchoring the pair around the middle of the intraday range into the NY close.
- Our technical analyst highlights that the cross is holding onto this week's gains. Gains though are considered corrective and the pair remains vulnerable. Bears now look for a push below the 76.4% retracement of the April 23 to July 2 rally (Y108.47) to reassert control. Firm resistance is seen at the July 14 high (110.70), with the July 7 high (Y110.82) located just above. A break through that zone would expose the July 2 high/bull trigger (Y111.66)
- Eurozone PMIs may set the tone during European hours, as markets look for cues after a very limited Asia-Pac session.
- There is nothing in the way of notable option expiries to be aware of at today's 10AM NY cut.