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Looking to the ECB for direction

BONDS

There has been some divergence in core fixed income this morning.

  • Bund futures moved to cycle lows overnight but have since drifted a bit higher, albeit remaining below yesterday's close. Focus is on the ECB decision later with the end date of asset purchases likely to be announced and how much the ECB pre-commits to hikes in July, September and further forward will be the main market moving question.
  • Gilts have moved lower following a fire in a Texas LNG export terminal which has pushed up UK/European natgas futures prices, and risks higher natgas prices through the winter as it will be harder for Europe to refill its storage capacity.
  • Treasuries moved below yesterday's lows overnight but are now largely flat on the day.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-1 today at 118-01+ with 10y UST yields down -0.1bp at 3.022% and 2y yields up 1.0bp at 2.785%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.17 today at 148.77 with 10y Bund yields up 0.9bp at 1.360% and Schatz yields down -0.3bp at 0.687%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.26 today at 114.57 with 10y yields up 1.7bp at 2.262% and 2y yields up 1.7bp at 1.783%.
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