MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Potentials S&P 500 Reversal

MNI (LONDON) - Price Signal Summary - Potential Reversal In S&P E-Minis     

• In the equity space, a volatile and bullish session in S&P E-Minis yesterday, highlights a possible reversal and the end of the corrective cycle between Sep 3 - 6. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards 5669.75, the Sep 3 high. On the downside, a reversal lower and a breach of 5394.0.00, the Sep 6 low, would reinstate a bearish theme. First support lies at 5515.90, the 50-day EMA. Despite a short-term bounce, EUROSTOXX 50 futures continue to trade closer to their recent lows. The latest move down has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A resumption of the bear leg would signal scope for weakness towards 4686.53, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull cycle. First resistance to watch is at 4867.99, the 50-day EMA.                                                                                                      
• In FX, EURUSD maintains a softer tone. The move lower this week, has resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA and a move through support at 1.1026, the Sep 3 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper correction towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.0980. Clearance of the 50-day EMA would undermine the bullish theme. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.1155, the Sep 6 high. A break of this hurdle would be bullish development. GBPUSD has traded lower this week, extending the bear cycle that started Aug 27. The move down is considered corrective and this is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3072, has been breached. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.2964. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.3266, Aug 27 high. USDJPY bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair traded to a fresh cycle low Wednesday, before recovering. S/T gains are - for now - considered corrective. The move down has resulted in a break of key support and the bear trigger at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and sights are on 140.25, the Dec 28 ‘23 low. Resistance is at 145.24, 20-day EMA.        
• On the commodity front, Gold continues to trade inside a range but remains closer to its recent highs. The trend condition is unchanged and the primary direction remains up. Sights are on $2536.4 next, a 1.50 projection of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing. The 20-day EMA has recently been pierced. The next firm support to watch is $2453.4, the 50-day EMA. In the oil space, WTI futures remain in a bearish condition, despite the latest bounce. Tuesday’s strong sell-off reinforces current conditions and confirmed an extension of the bear cycle. A continuation lower would open $63.93 next, 1.618 projection of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing, ahead of the psychological $60.00 handle. Short-term gains are considered corrective. Firm resistance is at $71.56, the 20-day EMA.                                                                                                                                                                                                 
• In the FI space, Bund futures traded higher yesterday and this confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Sep 2. The contract has breached 134.95, 76.4% of the Aug 5 - Sep 2 bear leg, exposing the key resistance and bull trigger at 135.66, the Aug 5 high. Initial firm support lies at 134.01, the 20-day EMA. Gilt futures traded higher again Wednesday and the contract remains firm with the bull cycle still in play. The latest round of gains have resulted in a break of 100.30, the Aug 14 high. This resumes the uptrend. 101.78 marks the next objective, a 1.00 projection of the Sep 2 - 6 - 9 price swing. On the downside, firm short-term support has been defined 99.29, the Sep 9 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Approaching The 50-Day EMA     

• RES 4: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
• RES 3: 1.1234 1.618 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1155/1202 High Sep 6 / High Aug 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1091 High Sep 9 
• PRICE: 1.1016 @ 05:52 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 1.1002 Low Sep 11 
• SUP 2: 1.0990 50.0% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0980 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.0878 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg

EURUSD maintains a softer tone. The move lower this week, has resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA and a move through support at 1.1026, the Sep 3 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper correction towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.0980. Clearance of the 50-day EMA would undermine the bullish theme. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.1155, the Sep 6 high. A break of this hurdle would be bullish development.   

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle  

• RES 4: 1.3362 1.618 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
• RES 3: 1.3328 76.4% retrace of the Jun 2021 - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3238/3266 High Sep 06 / High Aug 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3143 High Sep 9
• PRICE: 1.3050 @ 06:31 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 1.3002 Low Sep 11
• SUP 2: 1.2964 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2895 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - 27 bull leg
• SUP 4:  1.2852 Low Aug 16   

GBPUSD has traded lower this, extending the bear cycle that started Aug 27. The move down is considered corrective and this is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3072, has been breached. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.2964. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.3266, Aug 27 high.   

EURGBP TECHS: Shallow Correction Appears To Be A Bear Flag    

• RES 4: 0.8623 High Aug 22 
• RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 
• RES 2: 0.8470 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8464 High Sep 12
• PRICE: 0.8442 @ 06:36 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 0.8400 Low Aug 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8383 Low Jul 17 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 ‘22
• SUP 4: 0.8311 3.00 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing  

A bearish theme in EURGBP remains intact and the cross continues to trade closer to its most recent lows. The latest move higher is seen as a shallow correction and still appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern that reinforces current conditions. A break lower would resume the downtrend and open 0.8383, the Jul 17 low and the next key support. Resistance to watch is 0.8472, the 50-day EMA. 

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points South        

• RES 4: 149.39 High Aug 15 and a reversal trigger  
• RES 3: 148.57 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 144.97/147.21 20-day EMA / High Sep 2   
• RES 1: 143.71 High Sep 9    
• PRICE: 142.88 @ 06:53 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 140.71 Low Sep 11    
• SUP 2: 140.25 Low Dec 28 ‘23 and a key support
• SUP 3: 139.87 1.236 proj of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing
• SUP 4: 139.00 1.382 proj of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing  

USDJPY bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair traded to a fresh cycle low Wednesday, before recovering. S/T gains are - for now - considered corrective. The move down has resulted in a break of key support and the bear trigger at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 140.25, Dec 28 ‘23 low. Resistance is at 145.24, 20-day EMA.      

EURJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present  

• RES 4: 162.89 High Sep 2 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 160.89 High Sep 4   
• RES 2: 160.18 20-day EMA  
• RES 1: 158.64 High Sep 10 
• PRICE: 157.44 @ 06:58 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 155.46 Low Sep 11
• SUP 2: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 154.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23

EURJPY traded lower initially Wednesday as the bear cycle that started mid-August extends. All key retracement points of the rally between Aug 5 - 15, have been cleared and this exposes the key support and bear trigger at 154.42, the Aug 5 low. A break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 160.18, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.      

AUDUSD TECHS: Watching Resistance  

• RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 ‘23      
• RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance                 
• RES 2: 0.6839 High Jan 2
• RES 1: 0.6767/6824 High Sep 6 / High Aug 29 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 06692 @ 07:29 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 0.6622 Low Sep 11  
• SUP 2: 0.6608 Low Aug 16 
• SUP 3: 0.6587 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5- 29 rally
• SUP 4: 0.6565 Low Aug 12 

A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains in place for now and note that the recent move down is considered corrective. The pair has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for an extension towards 0.6608, the Aug 16 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6767, the Jun 6 high. Clearance of this level is required to highlight a reversal and expose key resistance at 0.6824, the Aug 29 high. 

USDCAD TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.3739 High Aug 15
• RES 3: 1.3693 High Aug 19
• RES 2: 1.3632 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.3623 High Sep 11
• PRICE: 1.3566 @ 07:51 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 1.3547/3441 Low Sep 9 / Aug 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3420 Low Mar 08
• SUP 3: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 - Aug 5 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 05

Recent strength in USDCAD appears to be corrective. Attention is on resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3632. This level remains intact and the pair is pulling away from its recent highs. A breach of the EMA would signal scope for a stronger bullish cycle. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on 1.3441, the Aug 28 low and the bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Aug 5.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z4) Bull Cycle Still In Play     

• RES 4: 136.37 1.236 retracement proje of the Aug 5 - Sep 2 bear leg        
• RES 3: 136.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 135.66 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 135.49 High Sep 11                    
• PRICE: 135.13 @ 05:33 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 134.01/133.30 20- and 50-day EMA values            
• SUP 2: 132.65 Low Sep 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 132.25 Low Jul 29
• SUP 4: 131.66 Low Jul 26

Bund futures traded higher yesterday and this confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Sep 2. The contract has breached 134.95, 76.4% of the Aug 5 - Sep 2 bear leg, exposing the key resistance and bull trigger at 135.66, the Aug 5 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 134.01, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight a potential reversal.        

BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Trades Through Key Resistance 

• RES 4: 120.905 1.50 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
• RES 3: 120.722 1.382 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg 
• RES 2: 120.496 1.236 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg   
• RES 1: 120.230 High Sep 11                    
• PRICE: 120.020 @ 05:47 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 119.600 Low Sep 9      
• SUP 2: 119.312 20-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 119.030 Low Sep 4   
• SUP 4: 118.580 Low Sep 3 and key support 

A bullish condition in Bobl futures remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce this theme. Wednesday’s gains resulted in a print above key resistance and the bull trigger at 120.130, the Aug 5 high. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 120.496, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is 119.312, the 20-day EMA.                 

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Outlook Remains Bullish 

• RES 4: 107.474 1.382 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
• RES 3: 107.373 1.236 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 107.210 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 107.155 High Sep 11   
• PRICE: 107.070 @ 06:12 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 106.920/765 Low Sep 10 / 6       
• SUP 2: 106.675 Low Sep 4 
• SUP 3: 106.520 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 105.975 High Jun 14 (cont) 

A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The move higher has resulted in a break of 107.047, 76.4% of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg. This paves the way for a climb towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 107.210, the Aug 5 high. Clearance of this resistance would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Initial support lies at 106.920, the Sep 10 low.                           

GILT TECHS: (Z4) Bullish Extension                                             

• RES 4: 102.37 1.236 proj of the Sep 2 - 6 - 9 price swing
• RES 3: 102.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 101.78 1.00 proj of the Sep 2 - 6 - 9 price swing  
• RES 1: 101.41 High Sep 11      
• PRICE: 101.34 @ Close Sep 11
• SUP 1: 100.64 High Sep 10 and a gap low on the daily chart         
• SUP 2: 99.83 Low Sep 10    
• SUP 3: 99.49 20-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 99.29 Low Sep 9  

Gilt futures traded higher again, Wednesday and the contract remains firm with the bull cycle still in play. The latest round of gains have resulted in a break of 100.30, the Aug 14 high. This resumes the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. 101.78 marks the next objective, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, firm short-term support has been defined 99.29, the Sep 9 low.         

 BTP TECHS: (Z4) Northbound       

• RES 4: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 121.32 2.618 proj  of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
• RES 2: 121.04 2.500 proj  of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
• RES 1: 120.84 HIgh Sep 11
• PRICE: 120.75 @ Close Sep 11
• SUP 1: 119.43/118.16 20-day EMA / Low Sep 2 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 118.00 Low Jul 29
• SUP 3: 116.21 Low Jul 9
• SUP 4: 115.14 Low Jul 1

The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish and Wednesday’s gains reinforce this condition. The break higher yesterday resulted in a breach of 120.34, the Sep 6 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and extends the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 121.04 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 119.43, the 20-day EMA.

US‌‌ ‌‌10YR‌‌ ‌‌FUTURE‌‌ ‌‌TECHS:‌‌ (Z4) Trades Through The Bull Trigger    

• RES 4: 116-07   1.764 proj of the Aug 8 - 21 - Sep 3   
• RES 3: 116-00   Round number resistance
• RES 2: 115-31   1.618 proj of the Aug 8 - 21 - Sep 3  
• RES 1: 115-23+ High Sep 11
• PRICE:‌‌ 115-09 @ 19:40 BST Sep 11
• SUP 1: 114-27+/06+ Low Sep 10 / 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 114-00+ Low Sep 4
• SUP 3: 113-12   Low Sep 3      
• SUP 4: 113-03+ 50-day EMA 

The trend needle in Treasuries continues to point north and this week’s gains reinforce this theme. Today’s initial rally has resulted in a print above key resistance and the bull trigger at 115-19, the Aug 5 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and paves the way for a climb towards the 116.00 handle. MA studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear M/T uptrend.  Firm support is seen at 114-06+, the 20-day EMA.                             

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Resistance Remains Intact For Now             

• RES 4: 5132.00 High Jun 6      
• RES 3: 5087.00 High Jul 12 and a key resistance   
• RES 2: 5012.00 High Jul 16
• RES 1: 4867.99/4998.00 50-day EMA / High Sep 3 and a bull trigger  
• PRICE: 4829.00 @ 06:30 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 4729.00 Low Sep 10
• SUP 2: 4686.53 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4612.94 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 4558.00 Low Aug 6  

Despite a short-term bounce, Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade closer to their recent lows. The latest move down has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A resumption of the bear leg would signal scope for weakness towards 4686.53, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial key short-term resistance has been defined at 4998.00, the Sep 3 high. First resistance is at 4867.99, the 50-day EMA.                

E-MINI S&P: (U4) Bullish Recovery             

• RES 4: 5821.25 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing 
• RES 3: 5800.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and key resistance
• RES 1: 5604.67/5669.75 76.4% of the Sep 3 - 6 bear leg / High Sep 3       
• PRICE: 5569.75 @ 06:05 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 5515.90/5394.00 50-day EMA / Low Sep 6 and a bear trigger    
• SUP 2: 5367.50 Low Aug 13 
• SUP 3: 5330.00 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 5249.74 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull leg

A volatile and bullish session in S&P E-Minis yesterday, highlights a possible bullish reversal and the end of the corrective cycle between Sep 3 - 6. The contract is trading above the 20- and 50-day EMAs and a continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards 5669.75, the Sep 3 high. On the downside, a reversal lower and a breach of 5394.0.00, the Sep 6 low, would reinstate a bearish theme. 

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X4) Bearish Outlook      

• RES 4: $83.74 - High Jul 18
• RES 3: $80.53/81.46 - High Aug 26 / 12 and key resistance
• RES 2: $77.58 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $72.28/74.86 - High Sep 10 / 20-day EMA    
• PRICE: $71.37 @ 07:03 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: $68.68 - Low Sep 10 
• SUP 2:  $67.63 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
• SUP 3: $65.95 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
• SUP 4: $63.24 - 2.00 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing 

Brent futures remain in a clear downtrend and Wednesday’s sharp sell-off reinforces current conditions. The move lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on $67.63 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the downtrend is in oversold territory. A recovery - a correction - would allow this condition to unwind. Firm resistance is at $74.86, the 20-day EMA.      

WTI TECHS: (V4) Trend Needle Points South      

• RES 4: $78.54 - High Aug 12 and key resistance
• RES 3: $77.60 - High Aug 26
• RES 2: $74.16 - 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: $69.08/71.56 - High Sep 10 / 20-day EMA    
• PRICE: $68.04 @ 07:11 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: $65.27 - Low Sep 10  
• SUP 2: $63.93 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
• SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $56.79 - 2.318 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing

WTI futures remain in a bearish condition. Tuesday’s strong sell-off reinforces current conditions and confirmed an extension of the bear cycle. This also  maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A continuation lower would open $63.93 next, a Fibonacci projection point, ahead of the psychological $60.00 handle. Short-term gains would be considered corrective. Firm resistance is at $71.56, the 20-day EMA.        

GOLD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish     

• RES 4: $2600.0 - Round number resistance   
• RES 3: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 ‘23 price swing
• RES 2: $2536.4 - 1.50 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
• RES 1: $2531.8 - High Aug 20 and the bull trigger                 
• PRICE: $2420.93 @ 07:16 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: $2472.0 - Low Sep  4
• SUP 2: $2453.4 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $2417.0 - Low Sep 8
• SUP 4: $2364.4 - Low Aug 5 

Gold continues to trade inside a range but remains closer to its recent highs. The trend condition is unchanged and the primary direction remains up. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $2536.4 next, a Fibonacci projection. The 20-day EMA has recently been pierced. The next firm support to watch is $2453.4, the 50-day EMA. Short-term weakness is considered corrective.       

SILVER TECHS: Remains Below Resistance    

• RES 4: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing      
• RES 3: $31.754/32.518 - High Jul 11 / High May 20 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $30.502 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 8 bear leg
• RES 1: $28.829/30.192 - 50-day EMA / High Aug 26                
• PRICE: $28.737 @ 07:59 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: $27.686/26.451 - Low Sep 6 / Low Aug 8 
• SUP 2: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
• SUP 3: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
• SUP 4: $22.277 - Low Feb 28 

Silver is unchanged. A medium-term bearish cycle remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Price on Aug 8, traded to a fresh cycle low, before rebounding. This has exposed key support at $26.018, the May 2 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $30.192, the Aug 26 high. A resumption of gains and a breach of this hurdle would cancel the bearish theme and expose $30.502, a Fibonacci retracement.