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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
PHP
USD/PHP remains on the front foot, with the pair gaining a further 0.50% today. We were last around the 56.10/15, fresh highs back to the start of the year. We are right on the 200-day MA as well, see the chart below. A break through this level would target Dec 28 highs near 56.30. Beyond that there doesn't appear to be too many levels before 57.00 is reached, at least from a technical standpoint. On the downside, the 200-day EMA is around 55.14.
- Much like yesterday, there doesn't appear to a standout catalyst for PHP weakness, but rather a host of factors, centered on higher US yields.
- PHP remains vulnerable from a current account deficit standpoint in an environment where US real yields continue to recover, while the rebound in oil prices will limit improvement in the trade deficit.
- Still, we wouldn't be surprised to see BSP curb the rate of depreciation. The PHP has lost 3% in April to date. The authorities may not want to see rapid fall towards 57.00.
Fig 1: USD/PHP Breaking Above Its 200-day MA
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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