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Low Response Rates Add To Scope For NFP Revisions

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • One factor we should have mentioned in the payrolls preview as to why two-month revisions should be watched so closely, is the continued recent decline in survey response rates.
  • January saw a 1st response rate of 56% after the 49.4% in Dec was one of the lowest first reads since the early 1990s.
  • The 2nd response rate for December meanwhile of 80.1% was its lowest since 2003.
  • This is for the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, which captures nonfarm employment, hours worked and earnings of payrolled workers.
  • MNI Payrolls Preview here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/60262/USNFPMar2024Preview.pdf

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