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Lower Amidst Weak Chinese PMIs; OPEC+ Meets This Week

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WTI is ~-$1.00 and Brent is ~-$0.80 at typing, with both benchmarks operating around session lows after the Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI print missed expectations (albeit narrowly staying within expansionary territory), adding to earlier worry re: economic slowdowns following the unexpected contraction in the official Chinese manufacturing PMI over the weekend.

  • OPEC+ meets later this week (Aug 3), with the group’s communication re: adjustments to supply in focus, following RTRS sources last week reporting that a “modest” hike for Sep may be discussed. The group’s lack of accessible spare capacity remains well-documented however, with members missing collective output targets by ~2.7mn bpd for May (and widening to ~2.8mn bpd in June based on prior Argus Media source reports)
  • Libya announced that crude production has returned to >1.2mn bpd, returning ~600K bpd of crude global supplies from the peak of the country’s political crisis in recent months.
  • Iran on Sunday expressed the desire for a “swift conclusion” to nuclear talks in Vienna after the EU’s Borrell delivered a draft text early last week to both Iran and the U.S. (the U.S. State Dept is continuing to review the EU’s proposal).
  • Elsewhere, debate re: the end of U.S. SPR crude releases in October has increasingly come to the fore, with the loss of ~1mn bpd in supply via the measure likely to exacerbate tightness in crude markets.
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WTI is ~-$1.00 and Brent is ~-$0.80 at typing, with both benchmarks operating around session lows after the Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI print missed expectations (albeit narrowly staying within expansionary territory), adding to earlier worry re: economic slowdowns following the unexpected contraction in the official Chinese manufacturing PMI over the weekend.

  • OPEC+ meets later this week (Aug 3), with the group’s communication re: adjustments to supply in focus, following RTRS sources last week reporting that a “modest” hike for Sep may be discussed. The group’s lack of accessible spare capacity remains well-documented however, with members missing collective output targets by ~2.7mn bpd for May (and widening to ~2.8mn bpd in June based on prior Argus Media source reports)
  • Libya announced that crude production has returned to >1.2mn bpd, returning ~600K bpd of crude global supplies from the peak of the country’s political crisis in recent months.
  • Iran on Sunday expressed the desire for a “swift conclusion” to nuclear talks in Vienna after the EU’s Borrell delivered a draft text early last week to both Iran and the U.S. (the U.S. State Dept is continuing to review the EU’s proposal).
  • Elsewhere, debate re: the end of U.S. SPR crude releases in October has increasingly come to the fore, with the loss of ~1mn bpd in supply via the measure likely to exacerbate tightness in crude markets.