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Lower House To Vote On Court Bill, NBP's Wnorowski Says Inflation Spike Could Warrant Hikes

POLAND
  • The lower house of parliament will today vote on the court legislation needed to unlock EUR35.4bn in EU recovery funds. A parliamentary committee controlled by the ruling party recommended rejecting all the amendments tabled by the opposition. The government needs the support or abstention of some opposition lawmakers as junior coalition party Solidarna Polska refuses to support the bill. Should the bill be approved today, it would be sent to the upper house controlled by the opposition, which would likely lead to another attempt to amend the legislation. Government spokesperson Priotr Muller said that if the legislative process is completed in the coming weeks, Poland could receive the suspended funding in May or June.
  • NBP's Henryk Wnorowski told Biznes24 that a strong inflationary impulse in 1Q2023 could warrant the resumption of the rate-hike cycle. He emphasised that he does not expect consumer prices to grow faster than +20% Y/Y, but it this scenario materialises, the central bank could raise interest rates once or twice by "small" increments, albeit it is "too early to speculate." Wnorowski's colleague from the MPC Ireneusz Dabrowski told RMF FM yesterday that inflation will likely peak below +20% Y/Y in February-March and noted that there could be room to cut interest rates near the turn of the year, albeit he refused to rule out renewed tightening either.
  • Poland's statistics bureau will publish the final CPI readings for December at 10:00CET/09:00GMT. Also on the radar today are trade balance and current account balance (13:00CET/12:00GMT), as well as a review of Poland's sovereign credit rating by Fitch.
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