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Free AccessLower In Asia; Little Changed In June
Gold sits ~$4/oz weaker to print $1,833/oz, operating around session lows, and extending a pullback from Wednesday’s best levels at writing.
- To recap, the precious metal reversed earlier losses to close ~$5/oz higher on Wednesday, with a downtick in U.S. real yields and the USD (DXY) providing limited support to the space.
- Bullion ultimately sits little changed in June, keeping within a relatively narrow ~$45/oz trading band with debate re: the possibility of a Fed-led recession increasingly taking focus.
- To elaborate, the latest round of Fedspeak on Wednesday saw Fed Chair Powell acknowledge that a soft landing for the U.S. economy would be “very challenging”, while declining to rule out a potential 100bp rate hike in July. Elsewhere, Chicago Fed Pres Evans (due to retire in early ‘23) said that rates would need to rise “a good deal more” in the Fed’s inflation fight, highlighting their potential negative impact on labour markets, while flagging data-dependence for rate hikes further out.
- Looking ahead, Powell is due to speak before the House Financial Services Panel later on Thursday (1500 BST).
- July FOMC dated OIS now price in ~82bp of tightening for that meeting after above-mentioned comments from Powell re: a 100bp hike, suggesting a ~30% chance of a 100bp move in July, up from ~70-75bp seen over the rest of the week prior.
- From a technical perspective, previously outlined support and resistance levels remain intact at $1,787.0/oz (May 16 low) and $1,889.1/oz (trendline resistance from Mar 8 high) respectively.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.