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Lower Inflation Expectations But Still Around 2023 Average

AUSTRALIA DATA

The Melbourne Institute’s consumer inflation expectations measure for August eased to 4.9% from 5.2%, the lowest since April. The series has struggled though to hold moves below 5% and has averaged this rate since December last year. They have moderated from their peak of 6.7% in June 2022.

  • There were a number of recent factors that would have helped to bring down inflation expectations. Petrol prices in the first week of August and last week of July fell. The RBA left rates at 4.1% again at its August 1 meeting stating that while inflation is still “too high” it is declining. The lower-than-expected Q2 CPI released on July 26 also received a fair amount of press. Both events gave the sense that the worst of the cost-of-living pressures may be behind us.
Australia MI inflation expectations vs CPI y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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