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Lower On Demand Worry, Supply Outlook Improvements

OIL

WTI is ~-$0.50 and Brent is ~-$0.80, operating within the lower end of their respective ranges established on Monday, with WTI remaining below the $90 mark at typing.

  • To recap, WTI and Brent closed lower for a second consecutive session on Monday, shedding ~$3 apiece amidst rising worry re: softer global growth after disappointing economic data prints out of the U.S. and China (note that Chinese oil demand was shown to have fallen ~10% Y/Y as well), with WTI recording fresh six-month lows during the session.
  • Optimism surrounding a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal has surged after a source report by the Iranian Students’ News Agency stated that Iran’s position on the EU’s “final draft” had been sent to the EU, with a reply expected later this week. Elsewhere, the Iranian FM stated that an agreement could be reached within days, dependent on the U.S. (note that this does not differ from official statements in prior months before negotiations were effectively halted).
  • Iranian crude output prior to U.S. sanctions in ‘17 suggests that a lifting of sanctions could return >1mn bpd of crude to global markets.
  • Brent’s prompt spread sits at ~$0.73 at typing, having closed below the $1.00 mark on Monday for the first time since Apr ‘22, reflecting easing worry re: tightness in near-term global crude supplies.
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WTI is ~-$0.50 and Brent is ~-$0.80, operating within the lower end of their respective ranges established on Monday, with WTI remaining below the $90 mark at typing.

  • To recap, WTI and Brent closed lower for a second consecutive session on Monday, shedding ~$3 apiece amidst rising worry re: softer global growth after disappointing economic data prints out of the U.S. and China (note that Chinese oil demand was shown to have fallen ~10% Y/Y as well), with WTI recording fresh six-month lows during the session.
  • Optimism surrounding a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal has surged after a source report by the Iranian Students’ News Agency stated that Iran’s position on the EU’s “final draft” had been sent to the EU, with a reply expected later this week. Elsewhere, the Iranian FM stated that an agreement could be reached within days, dependent on the U.S. (note that this does not differ from official statements in prior months before negotiations were effectively halted).
  • Iranian crude output prior to U.S. sanctions in ‘17 suggests that a lifting of sanctions could return >1mn bpd of crude to global markets.
  • Brent’s prompt spread sits at ~$0.73 at typing, having closed below the $1.00 mark on Monday for the first time since Apr ‘22, reflecting easing worry re: tightness in near-term global crude supplies.