Lower Russian Flows Add to TTF Price Pressure

Flows through Nord Stream are nominated at just 64.9mcm/d today down from 95mcm/d yesterday and in line with expectation. TTF up another 5.6% today to 127€/MWh.

• Gazprom had notified that the reduce flow is due to a halt of an extra compressor. The flow was already limited to 100mcm/d from a max of 167mcm/d with reports of a delay in the return of a gas turbine sent away for maintenance. German Economy Minister Habeck however suggested the cuts in gas flows are politically motivated.
• Russian flows through Ukraine are very slightly higher today at 42.5mcm/d.
• Norwegian flows are similar to yesterday with nominations for 314.8mcm/d now that seasonal maintenance has been completed.
• Uncertainty remains over LNG imports due to the extended outage of the Freeport LNG export terminal in US. The weekly average of net imports in to NW Europe have been well above normal for the time of year at 170k mt compared to a 5-year average of 86k mt.
• There was a small drop in European storage levels which are now 52.1% full, with Germany at 55.95%, Italy at 53.9%, France at 55.9% and Netherlands at 45.9%. With a reduction to flows from Russian and from US LNG the ability to fill storage may be reduced until supplies recover.