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Lower Than Expected Treasury Borrowing Estimates

US

Treasury cuts Jan-March borrowing estimates from $816bn to $760bn, and estimates April-June at $202bn (see here).

  • The combination is clearly lower than the estimates we noted ahead of the release, summing to $962bn over the two quarters vs $1118bn for JPM/SocGen or $1269bn for DB.
  • DB for instance was closer with the Jan-Mar estimate with $797bn but then expected $472bn for Apr-Jun.
  • JPM and SocGen both looked for circa $260bn for Apr-Jun.
  • Treasury assumes a lower end-quarter cash balance than the above analysts, at $750bn for end-of-June vs $775bn pencilled in by JPM and $800bn by DB.
  • SOMA redemptions of $197bn meanwhile were exactly as DB forecast.

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