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Lrg BLS March Job Down Revision, Dovish July FOMC Minutes Weigh on Tsys

US TSYS
  • Treasuries saw a moderately volatile session following the delayed BLS prelim annual payrolls benchmark down revision of 818k jobs to the Mar'24 statistics.
  • After taking more than 30 minutes for official public confirmation, the BLS reports that the preliminary benchmark payrolls revision is a very large -818k. It implies seasonally adjusted average monthly payrolls growth through the twelve months to Mar 2024 was closer to 174k rather than 242k seen in the current vintage.
  • Futures pared back gains after see-sawing higher into the dovish July FOMC minutes, Sep'24 10Y futures +8 at 113-26 vs. 114-01 high, 10Y yield at 3.7897% vs. 3.7595% low.
  • As expected, the July FOMC minutes (link) signalled that participants were eyeing a cut in September, with "several" seeing it as "plausible" to cut already in July. There weren't many clues in the minutes on future monetary policy beyond that, with no mention for example of a potential >25bp cut.
  • Projected rate cuts through year end gained vs. early Wednesday levels (*): Sep'24 cumulative -33.6bp (-33.3bp), Nov'24 cumulative -65.7bp (-64.4bp), Dec'24 -101.3bp (-98.3bp).
  • Focus turns to the KC Fed hosted Jackson Hole economic symposium "Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy," will be held Aug. 22-24, Fed Chairman Powell speaking 1000ET Friday morning.
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