Lula Presidency Will See Increased Economic Partnership With China

One of the key questions ahead of a potential Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) presidency is whether or not there will be a pivot back to China.

• Former Lula Foreign Minster, and close ally, Celso Amorim gave an interview on Friday which suggested a Lula presidency would be 'pragmatic and not ideological'.
• According to many analysts the ideological stance of Bolsonaro has led to a dramatic deterioration of the bilateral relationship between Brazil and China.
• Bolsonaro initially opposed plans to use Huawei's 5G infrastructure before submitting to private sector pressure to allow the Chinese firm to develop Brazil's 5G network. His opposition to Chinese influence in Brazil is in part due to a close relationship with former US president Donald Trump and a more general mistrust of Chinese intentions in Latin America.
• While Lula would not actively seek a preferential relationship with China, as some Latin American countries have, he would likely discontinue the hostile stance taken by Bolsonaro.
• Amorim said:'... you cannot ignore the fact that China is the fastest growing economy and will be the world’s largest economy by the end of the decade.'
• The increasingly market friendly talk coming from Lula's camp suggest that a Lula presidency would be more moderate than many initially predicted. This would follow a Brazilian political trend of campaigning for the leftist vote but governing from a more moderate position.