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BRAZIL: Lula’s Election Poll Advantage Narrows, New Senate Leader Supports Govt

BRAZIL
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  • According to a Quaest poll, President Lula has seen his advantage over potential 2026 election opponents narrow over the past month, although he would still win in any runoff scenario. Bloomberg reports that Lula’s advantage over Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, for example, fell to 9pp, from 26. The poll also revealed that 78% of respondents remain undecided who to vote for in the election.
    • With pressure on his popularity amid rising food prices, Lula is meeting with the newly elected Congress leaders, Senator Davi Alcolumbre and Congressman Hugo Motta, as Congress returns from recess with a busy agenda including approval of the 2025 budget.
    • New Senate Leader Alcolumbre has said that the Senate will collaborate with the government and needs to support the government’s agenda, while Lula has said the new Congress won’t have any problems from him.
    • Despite a slight improvement in the manufacturing PMI in January, BRL continues to trade in the red amid tariff concerns, ~0.65% weaker against the dollar at typing. USDBRL remains below the 50-day EMA, with sights on the 5.8000 handle to the downside and initial resistance at 5.9625, the 20-day EMA.
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  • According to a Quaest poll, President Lula has seen his advantage over potential 2026 election opponents narrow over the past month, although he would still win in any runoff scenario. Bloomberg reports that Lula’s advantage over Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, for example, fell to 9pp, from 26. The poll also revealed that 78% of respondents remain undecided who to vote for in the election.
    • With pressure on his popularity amid rising food prices, Lula is meeting with the newly elected Congress leaders, Senator Davi Alcolumbre and Congressman Hugo Motta, as Congress returns from recess with a busy agenda including approval of the 2025 budget.
    • New Senate Leader Alcolumbre has said that the Senate will collaborate with the government and needs to support the government’s agenda, while Lula has said the new Congress won’t have any problems from him.
    • Despite a slight improvement in the manufacturing PMI in January, BRL continues to trade in the red amid tariff concerns, ~0.65% weaker against the dollar at typing. USDBRL remains below the 50-day EMA, with sights on the 5.8000 handle to the downside and initial resistance at 5.9625, the 20-day EMA.