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Lurch lower but some retracement

BONDS

Despite some partial retracement, core fixed income remains lower across the board.

  • TY1 hit a low of 131-09 but has since recovered to 131-16 at the time of writing. still well below yesterday's close of 131-25+. If we close lower today, TY1 will have fallen for six consecutive sessions for the first time since October.
  • 10-year gilt yields breached 1% for the first time since May 2019 (with the exception of the intraday liquidity squeeze ahead of the announcement of QE in March 2020 at the beginning of the pandemic).
  • Against this backdrop curves have steepened while peripheral spreads are mixed (Italy wider while Portugal, Spain, Greece are tighter).
  • There are a number of ECB speakers due today (due to the ECB Forum) while the BOE's Mann makes her first post-meeting appearance.
  • Powell and Yellen are due to appear ahead of the Senate Banking Panel while we are also due to hear from Evans, Bostic and Bowman. US trade headlines the data releases.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-9+ today at 131-16 with 10y UST yields up 3.6bp at 1.524% and 2y yields up 0.9bp at 0.312%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.35 today at 169.82 with 10y Bund yields up 2.6bp at -0.198% and Schatz yields up 0.4bp at -0.692%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.48 today at 125.46 with 10y yields up 5.1bp at 1.002% and 2y yields up 3.6bp at 0.417%.

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