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M/M House Price Fall Moderates, But Broad Based Recovery Still Appears Absent

CHINA DATA

March home price data for China saw a modest sequential improvement versus the Feb outcome, albeit while still recording m/m falls. New home prices fell -0.34% m/m (prior was -0.36%). Used or existing home prices fell -0.53% m/m (prior was -0.62%). Still in y/y terms, new home prices fell -2.65% (versus -1.9% in Feb). For exiting homes we are down -5.9% y/y (-5.15% in Feb).

  • In terms of cities, we saw new home prices rise in 11 cities, versus 8 last month. The number of cities where prices fell was 57 (against 59 last month).
  • For used or existing homes we had only one city record a rise (2 saw a rise last month). 69 cities saw a fall (against 68 in Feb).
  • In y/y terms, 58 cities saw a fall for new homes, 11 saw a rise. For existing homes, all 70 cities saw y/y falls.
  • New home prices in Shanghai are a bright spot, up 0.5% m/m, +4.3% y/y. Existing homes are down -6.9% y/y though. Beijing new homes are +0.8% y/y for new homes, -6.4% y/y for existing homes.
  • While m/m falls have moderated, a broad base recovery still appears absent for house prices.
  • Coming up shortly we have Q1 GDP and March activity figures.
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