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Macklem: First Q&A Down, Second To Come

CANADA
  • The second Q&A with reporters follows in just under 15mins.
  • GoC yields were little changed through the Q&A before rallying modestly on spillover from the US 10Y auction stopping through.
  • USDCAD moves were muddied by the Fed's Mester speaking concurrently but the pair is currently a touch lower than before both started speaking, close to daily lows.
  • In broadly similar comments to recent headlines, Macklem reiterated in the Q&A that "a path really suggests multiple increases" and that "a rising path doesn't mean we're on autopilot, we'll take those decisions at each point".
  • He fleshed out some assumptions behind the BoC's baseline forecast, noting that demand is much more self-sustaining now than 18 months ago and households have an excess saving of ~C$200B. The BoC assumes that 20% of that is spent, bringing down household savings rate to more normal levels. They assume a strong consumer-led recovery but to sustain that "you need investment, you need productivity, to build the supply capacity to absorb that demand".
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