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Macro Developments Since Jun FOMC: Labor - payrolls misses [1/2]

US
[The below is an excerpt from the MNI Fed Preview that was published and e-mailed to subscribers earlier today]
  • The single payrolls report for June was the opposite of May’s, with nonfarm payrolls growth seeing its first miss in fifteen months along with a return of downward revisions.
  • Market reaction was however limited by both AHE growth and hours worked coming in stronger than expected, whilst the unemployment rate was on the low side of expectations albeit partly offset by the U6 underemployment rate rising on a strong increase in those working part-time for economic reasons.
  • Specifically, nonfarm payrolls increased 209k (cons 230K) in June with a hefty two-month downward revision of -110k. It left a three-month average at 244k following a 247k that had previously been 283k.
  • Further adding to the downside surprise was a larger miss for private sector payrolls at 149k (cons 200k) after a -98k two-month revision. Both are the softest rates since Dec’20 but clearly still far stronger than the long-run sustainable ~100k previously touted by Chair Powell.
  • The gap on the month came from government jobs again rising by more than expected at 60k vs the implied consensus of ~25k, with government payrolls just recently overtaking accommodation to leave the latter as the sector with the largest outright losses still to make up from pre-pandemic levels.

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