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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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- The single CPI report between meetings (after the May report landed on day one of the two-day June meeting) saw core CPI clearly softer than expected in June at 0.16% M/M (cons 0.3). In doing so it broke a particularly resilient run of 0.4% or higher prints seen since December.
- The bulk of the slowdown relative to June came from used cars as expected, but most eye-catching was a core services non-housing figure at exactly 0.00% M/M after 0.24% in May.
- Weakness was led by airfares and lodging away from home, which limited some of the dovish reaction, but nevertheless prompted a renewed focus on the timing of cuts.
- The Fed is ultimately focused on PCE inflation, the June data for which unfortunately isn’t released until two days after the FOMC decision, but updated analyst estimates pencil in an increase of circa 0.21% M/M, a stepdown from the 0.315% of May and 0.38% of April for the softest since Jul’22.
- As such, despite the latest progress a July Fed hike was still seen as locked in with some Fed members still wanting to see a sustained move lower, including a typically hawkish Waller keen to warn about reading too much into being one print in an environment where lags may be shorter than previously thought.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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