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Macro Developments Since May 2-3 FOMC: Equally Mixed Labor [2/2]

  • Further details in the May payrolls report were also mixed.
  • Average hourly earnings saw a downward revision but its non-supervisory component accelerated to a very strong 0.45% M/M for its the fastest monthly rate since November.
  • On the flip side, average hours worked surprisingly fell further and are approaching pre-pandemic lows, an exacerbated version of the trend decline nearer pre-pandemic averages seen in separate JOLTS quit rates.
  • Landing on Jun 2, the mixed payrolls report didn’t alter the recently adopted skip narrative for the Jun 13-14 FOMC, yet the sheer strength of payrolls trimmed rate cuts and Tsys bear flattened.

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