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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
- The two payrolls reports since the last FOMC meeting have shown jobs growth continuing to moderate but at a pace that is too slow for the Fed’s liking.
- That was made particularly clear by Chair Powell offering 100k as an equilibrium growth rate on Nov 30 before the November report beat expectations of 200k with 263k the following week.
- There is a caveat in that the separate household survey measure of employment has fallen in those two months and could be a sign that smaller non-payrolls businesses are under greater pressure, but the data are also typically more volatile and enjoyed a much stronger period through 2H21.
- The still strong payrolls figures are more in keeping with the strength in average hourly earnings and their newfound upward trajectory after sizeable revisions in the November report.
- AHE growth is now seen to have accelerated for the past three months, hitting 0.55% M/M for the fastest pace since January and non-supervisory employee wage growth faster still.
- There are as always compositional issues with AHEs whilst the latest Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker held at 6.4% for three-month moving average of median wage growth. The next Employment Cost Index for Q4 is unfortunately not released until Jan 31 but further upward pressures could have increasingly hawkish implications.
- Either way, the strong rate of wage growth is in keeping with an unemployment rate of 3.7% holding close to historical lows and the recovery in participation stalling further.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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