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Macro Developments Since Sep FOMC - Inflation: Disinflation Progress Falters [1/2]

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  • The CPI report for September followed payrolls and also saw a hawkish market reaction.
  • Headline was stronger than expected at 0.40% M/M (cons 0.3) and core came in at 0.32% M/M versus consensus of 0.3 but one that had been tilted lower with an average analyst forecast of 0.26.
  • The main driver of price action however was supercore jumping to 0.61% M/M after 0.37% for its highest since Sep’22 (this being core services excluding OER and primary rents).
  • While as usual there were some “noisy” factors involved, even the supercore measures were showing signs of a nascent slowdown in disinflationary progress, at the time driving another extension in the higher rates for longer theme.

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