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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
- After some gyrations in subsequent revisions, the stellar GDP growth in Q3 has, for now, been confirmed at 4.9% annualized.
- Just as surprising however was the lack of payback in latest advance data for Q4, printing 3.3% vs an expected 2.0%.
- A large part of this upside surprise was admittedly no sign of a widely expected drag from changes in inventories, which were flat after adding a strong 1.3pps to Q3 GDP growth, potentially seeing a drag kicked into Q1 data instead.
- Nevertheless, personal consumption still surprised stronger with 2.8% in Q4 after the 3.1% of Q3, buoyed by a further albeit more gradual push lower in household saving rates closer towards 2022 lows and far below pre-pandemic trends as households run down increasingly dwindling “excess savings”.
- The upshot is that GDP growth averaged an annualized 4.1% in 2H23 after 2.15% in 1H23 and 2.6% in 2H22.
- This surge in growth in the second half of 2023 has pushed annual growth to 3.1% Y/Y, far stronger than most expected - the Fed forecast 1.0% in June, 2.1% in Sept and 2.6% just last month.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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