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Macro Since Dec FOMC - Labor: ... And Initial Jobless Claims Trending Lower  [3/3]

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  • Alternate labor market indicators point to wildly different latest developments meanwhile. On the one hand, the ISM Services employment index slumped more than seven points in December to its lowest reading since Jul’20 and before that 2010 (with the January report released early next month to be no doubt watched particularly closely).
  • On the other hand, initial jobless claims have seen a material push lower with the four-week average at a particularly low 202k. For context, that’s the lowest since Jan’23 and is close to the 197k single week low of 2019 for a comparison with a previously tight labor market.
  • Continuing claims have seen ample attention recently, and the seasonally adjusted figures are elevated, but looking in non-seasonally adjusted terms, they have started the year at higher levels than early 2023 but are nevertheless low by previous years’ standards.

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