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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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- AHE growth also surprised with 0.44% M/M (cons 0.3) in an acceleration from a still strong 0.35% in Nov, with the last three months of 2023 growing at 4.3% annualized or 4.8% annualized on a non-supervisory category that encompasses around 80% of employees.
- Extremely strong productivity gains in recent quarters have helped mitigate the impact of this continued strength in wage growth, but there are questions over how much longer productivity can grow at 4-5% pace (something the Fed’s Waller touched upon as part of his call for a careful approach to rate cuts).
- The Q4 ECI on the day of the FOMC decision could shed further light here although productivity lands the day after. Where wage growth surprised higher, average hours worked also surprised lower, dropping back a tenth to 34.3 as it continues the oscillation between 34.3-34.4 since March, the lower end of the 34.3-34.6 range seen in a particularly stable period through 2011-19.
- With JOLTS quit rates also recently returning to pre-pandemic levels, and in November actually pushing below the 2019 average, it adds to the notion of the labor market pushing further into balance.
- Landing just two days after the FOMC decision, annual revisions across the payrolls report more generally should nevertheless be watched for any changes in recent trends.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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