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Macro Since March FOMC - Inflation: Another Core CPI Beat [1/3]

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[The following is an excerpt from the MNI Fed Preview - full note here - although part two is updated for last week's PCE data]
  • Two-year Treasury yields pushed higher to just about clear 4.75% at the close after the March payrolls report but it was CPI just a few days later that launched them to ultimately test the 5% handle along with multiple analyst view changes.
  • Core CPI inflation was again stronger than expected in March at 0.36% M/M (cons 0.3), ramping up concern that January’s, and less so February’s, uptick was largely down to seasonal factors.
  • This continuation of upside surprises saw the three-month run rate accelerate to 4.5% annualized, its highest since May’23, whilst the six-month at 3.9% saw a second month above the Y/Y in an indication of sustained recent upward momentum.
  • What’s more, “supercore” inflation surged 0.65% M/M for a huge 8.2% annualized over three months, adding to fears of persistence in services inflation.

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[The following is an excerpt from the MNI Fed Preview - full note here - although part two is updated for last week's PCE data]
  • Two-year Treasury yields pushed higher to just about clear 4.75% at the close after the March payrolls report but it was CPI just a few days later that launched them to ultimately test the 5% handle along with multiple analyst view changes.
  • Core CPI inflation was again stronger than expected in March at 0.36% M/M (cons 0.3), ramping up concern that January’s, and less so February’s, uptick was largely down to seasonal factors.
  • This continuation of upside surprises saw the three-month run rate accelerate to 4.5% annualized, its highest since May’23, whilst the six-month at 3.9% saw a second month above the Y/Y in an indication of sustained recent upward momentum.
  • What’s more, “supercore” inflation surged 0.65% M/M for a huge 8.2% annualized over three months, adding to fears of persistence in services inflation.