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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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- Taking a quick sweep across a range of other indicators, JOLTS job openings for January came in as expected which translated to 1.45x the number of unemployed for a continued plateauing at a level seen through 2H23 after previous moderation from ~2x in mid-2022.
- Quits rates meanwhile continued to trend lower and are increasingly below pre-pandemic levels in what could be a sign for wage growth weakness ahead.
- Away from the JOLTS report, annual seasonal revisions haven’t had a huge impact on initial jobless claims, still trending at historically low levels of 208k over the latest four weeks, but there has been an overhaul in the continuing claims data.
- The upshot is seasonally adjusted continuing claims have a far flatter profile now, indicating less of a squeeze on re-hiring than first indicated. The 1811k as of Mar 2 is only slightly above the 1800k averaged since Jul 2023, compared to a series that was previously seen peaking at 1925k having ramped higher from 1665k in Sep’23.
- The original seasonal adjustment had looked to overly bias continuing claims higher in that period, but this is still a sizeable adjustment.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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