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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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The below is taken from the MNI FOMC Preview, the full report of which can be found here.
- The January payrolls report followed shortly after the January FOMC decision and immediately offered vindication for Chair Powell’s pushback against a March cut.
- We’ll skip to the February report, with its better understanding of trends seen through post-holidays job shedding period, particularly important with first response rates still very low.
- The February report saw another large beat for consensus in the latest month (275k vs cons 200k) but also a return to downward revisions with a particularly large -167k. The private sector, which Powell in his congressional appearance said he tends to focus on for a better idea of underlying momentum, saw a smaller beat in February (223k vs cons 165k) and an even heavier downward revision of -204k. Revisions are likely to continue to be large whilst response rates are so low.
- The January data had a 56% first response rate which was upped to 86% after second responses. The first response rate for the February report has increased to 67% but is still relatively low by historical standards.
- Nevertheless, with those important caveats aside, the trend rate of payrolls growth has accelerated, with total nonfarm payrolls increasing an average 265k over the past three months (vs 198k three months ago) and private payrolls rising 205k (vs 149k three months ago).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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