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Maintaining Positive Bias Ahead Of China's NPC

OIL

Brent crude has been range bound so far today, currently sitting close to the $84.50/bbl level. WTI has traced a similar trajectory last just shy of the $78/bbl handle. Both benchmarks are tracing higher for the week. For Brent, we sit just north of the 20 and 50-day EMAs but the 100-day remains higher, closer to $86.50/bbl. We tested above this resistance point in Jan, but couldn't sustain the break.

  • Prompt spreads also continue to track higher, back to 0.65 for Brent. This is highs back to Nov last year.
  • The weekend focus will rest on China's NPC and growth targets for 2023. A rebound in China oil demand is seen as a key input underpinning higher oil forecasts for this year. It also comes after Saudi Aramco comments from earlier in the week that described China consumption as 'very strong'.
  • Looking into next week, on Tuesday we get China trade figures, which will include oil import trends. Also out on that day will be the US EIA short term monthly outlook. Note Fed Chair Powell also testifies to the US Senate on Tuesday as well.
Energy BulletsCommodities
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