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Majors Pairs Circling Lows Could Unlock Next Leg Higher for USD Index

FOREX
  • The greenback is firmer against all others in G10, with global equity futures modestly weaker and US treasury yields modestly on the front foot. The pullback in major pairs, including EUR/USD and GBP/USD, marks a resumption of the weakness off last week's highs and confirms Monday's bounce as corrective.
  • As such, EUR/USD eyes the weekly lows 1.0944 and GBP/USD bears look to support at 1.2763. Slippage below here will resume the downtrend in both pairs and could open the next leg higher for the USD Index. 100- and 50-dma resistance just above is the next upside level to note at 102.39 and 102.49 respectively.
  • CNH slipped overnight on the poorer-than-expected Caixin PMI release, which unexpectedly signaled contraction of 49.2 against 50.1 forecast. New home sales data were also a soft spot, with the value of new home sales down over 33% on the year. USD/CNH is pressing to new daily highs, with spot now approaching horizontal congestion resistance at 7.1774-78. Today's move higher has also topped the 50-dma of 7.1714 and a close above this mark today would be a bullish development.
  • ISM manufacturing for July takes focus after yesterday's MNI Chicago PMI came in slightly below expectations. Fed's Goolsbee is set to speak, however only welcoming remarks are scheduled, meaning policy commentary could be limited.

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