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Manheim Used Car Prices Fall For Third Month Running

US DATA
  • Manheim used car prices fell a seasonally adjusted -0.5% M/M in December, switching from what had looked like a small increase in the fifteen-day early estimate.
  • It marks the third monthly decline for used car prices, after two particularly heavy -2.3%/-2.1% declines in Oct/Nov.
  • CPI used car prices have been lagging the gyrations in other used car sources, including November’s surprisingly strong 1.6% M/M increase.
  • Analysts expect this recent weakness to start feeding through to CPI used cars in December, with an average response of -1.1% (grouped from +0.1% to -1.9%) of the estimates we’ve seen so far.
  • As a rough guide, a -1% decline in used cars would weigh circa -0.03pps on M/M core CPI in Dec, a relative swing of -0.08pps from November’s 0.285% M/M.

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