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Mann asked on the process of the decision
Question: Ask on the process. Decision on Wednesday, announce on Thursday and have a big meeting on the preceding Friday to discuss. Given the Fed changing course and data released since that Friday, how much should we look at data announced close to the decision?
Also on GDP weakening, how does that impact the decision?
Mann: Friday is an important meeting, even before Friday have a lot of discussions, and then ultimately make a final decision on the Wednesday. There was a fair amount of information that came in in that time period. My view is that on the data that came in on GDP and employment, accounting for the test and trace and Jubilee give a negative to the picture going forward. I am saying real income is being harmed by the energy etc price increases. However, when thinking about the various schemes in place e.g. fiscal packages that significant offset some of the price shocks for a range of the population. Also outlined in the household surveys that many people will be drawing down accumulated savings to stabilise their consumption pattern. There are people who will consume more out of their pay check, high marginal propensity to consume. Quality trade down - not something people want to do but it still represents consumption. Additional borrowing - which is a vulnerability in the longer-term. This gap between propensity to consume and real income gives firms more pricing power in the near-term. This is an important part of the domestic conjuncture on to which we must then add the global factor. For example your comment on the Fed hiking 75bp or even 50bp, the stylised exercises would still be valid, and we have to acknowledge the direction of travel for the Fed vs the BoE had already been incorporated into some sterling depreciation.
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