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Manpower (MAN; Baa1/BBB) 2Q (to June) Results

CONSUMER CYCLICALS
  • Staffing co has reported 2Q revenues of $4.5b (cc -3%yoy), adj. EBITDA of 112m (-9%) at margin of 2.5% (-20bps) and EBIT of $101m (-0.1%y) at a 2.2% margin (unch). All looks in line with consensus.
  • Says conditions were still firm with some weakness in Europe mainly on candidates less open to changing given uncertainty - which it says it typical of this point in the cycle. Guidance is for both regions to be challenging next quarter with a -4% to flat (-2% at midpoint) fall on headline and 2.2-2.4% EBIT margin.
  • Only debt is €26/27s - issuance outside of refi looks unlikely - co is not expected to see much growth in near-term.
  • €27s at Z+40 may be illiquid but still bit of caution from us on getting complacent...BS including leases is levered 2.8/1.9 (gross/net) but margins look weak as does headline. FV for us would be circa +30 north of where it is now.

For those interested in labour market here are snippets from it;
  • Surveyed "40,000 employers this spring found that hiring confidence is holding steady at lower levels compared to a year ago. As economic uncertainty continue to give employers pause and economies in Europe and North America are gradually cooling"
  • "six in ten believe AI and machine learning will have a positive impact on business performance and 70% plan to boost upskilling efforts accordingly"
  • "43% of workers feel neutral or negative about AI's impact on their jobs and futures."
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