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Manufacturing IP Still Subdued, October Headline Sees Large Revisions

NORWAY

Norway manufacturing industrial production, which excludes volatile oil services, fell -0.3% M/M SA, after a downwardly revised +0.5% M/M in October. On an annual basis, manufacturing IP fell -0.6% Y/Y (vs a downwardly revised -0.7% Y/Y prior).

  • M/M manufacturing IP was thus negative for November after a slightly positive October, seemingly consistent with the Norges Bank's Q4 2023 mainland GDP projection of 0.0% Q/Q in its December MPR. The manufacturing PMI for December rose to 51.7 (vs 50.1 prior), providing hope for a positive monthly print to end 2023.
  • The data was not a market mover, with NOK's weakness on the day likely a function of the fall in crude prices in the Asia-Pac session.
  • The headline IP rate was +2.4% M/M on an SA basis in November, and -6.2% Y/Y. The extraction and related services component (75.3% of the index) rose 4.1% M/M, after falling significantly during September following large gas maintenance outages.
  • However, caution should be taken with the interpretation of the headline prints on initial release, with the October data seeing large revisions. The original monthly print of -0.6% M/M was revised to +8.1% M/M, while the annual rate was revised to -9.1% Y/Y (vs -17.7% prior).

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