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Free AccessManufacturing IP Still Subdued, October Headline Sees Large Revisions
Norway manufacturing industrial production, which excludes volatile oil services, fell -0.3% M/M SA, after a downwardly revised +0.5% M/M in October. On an annual basis, manufacturing IP fell -0.6% Y/Y (vs a downwardly revised -0.7% Y/Y prior).
- M/M manufacturing IP was thus negative for November after a slightly positive October, seemingly consistent with the Norges Bank's Q4 2023 mainland GDP projection of 0.0% Q/Q in its December MPR. The manufacturing PMI for December rose to 51.7 (vs 50.1 prior), providing hope for a positive monthly print to end 2023.
- The data was not a market mover, with NOK's weakness on the day likely a function of the fall in crude prices in the Asia-Pac session.
- The headline IP rate was +2.4% M/M on an SA basis in November, and -6.2% Y/Y. The extraction and related services component (75.3% of the index) rose 4.1% M/M, after falling significantly during September following large gas maintenance outages.
- However, caution should be taken with the interpretation of the headline prints on initial release, with the October data seeing large revisions. The original monthly print of -0.6% M/M was revised to +8.1% M/M, while the annual rate was revised to -9.1% Y/Y (vs -17.7% prior).
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.